MIDFIELDER Bernie Vince looms as Melbourne’s best chance to win the club’s eighth Brownlow Medal.
Although Vince is regarded as a genuine smoky for this year’s ‘Charlie’, he could poll around 15 votes in Monday night’s count at Crown and is expected to be Melbourne’s highest vote-getter this year.
Among this year’s favourites are Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe, West Coast’s Matt Priddis, Adelaide’s Patrick Dangerfield, Sydney’s Dan Hannebery, Hawthorn’s Sam Mitchell and North Melbourne’s Todd Goldstein.
Although a Vince victory would be a genuine upset – albeit a popular winner – the former Crow did have an outstanding 2015, winning his second club best and fairest award, taking home the Keith ‘Bluey’ Truscott Memorial Trophy earlier this month.
In the process, he became the 19th player in VFL/AFL history to win a club champion award at two clubs, having won the Malcolm Blight Medal with Adelaide in 2009.
Although he was surprisingly left out of the 40-man All-Australian squad, the AFL coaches thought otherwise, naming Vince in this year’s AFLCA All-Australian team.
Of Vince’s teammates, skipper Nathan Jones, 2015 NAB AFL Rising Star winner Jesse Hogan, plus Jack Viney and Tom McDonald, who finished second and third respectively in the best and fairest, will be his biggest challengers.
Jones shouldn’t be discounted as Melbourne’s top vote-getter either this season, as he gained 13 last year, when the team won just four matches. He has gained 46 career votes, including 33 in the past three seasons.
McDonald was Melbourne’s best player in the first half of the season, particularly the opening seven rounds. But given the Demons only won two games in that period, it will be interesting to see how many he polls.
Hogan could sneak in for a handful of votes, as he led Melbourne’s goalkicking with 44 majors in 2015 and belied his age as an outstanding key forward.
Viney missed six matches for the season with a fractured fibula, but remarkably fell one vote short in Melbourne’s best and fairest. He’s sure to attract some votes in the Brownlow, but just how many will be fascinating.
If Vince did manage to win the Brownlow Medal, he would join Ivor Warne-Smith (1926 and 1928), Don Cordner (1946), Brian Wilson (1982), Peter Moore (1984), Jim Stynes (1991) and Shane Woewodin (2000) as the only Melbourne players to have won the competition’s highest individual honour.
Matt Burgan’s 2015 Melbourne Brownlow Medal predictions: round-by-round
Round 1: Melbourne v Gold Coast Suns, MCG
3. T.McDonald (Melb), 2. J.Garlett (Melb), 1. J. Watts (Melb)
Melbourne started the season in great style, notching up its first round one victory since 2005 after defeating the Suns by 26 points. Expect McDonald, who was given the full 10 votes in the AFLCA champion player of the year award, to gain three votes for his best-on-ground display. A host of Demons are also in line to poll: Jeff Garlett, Jack Watts, Viney, Jeremy Howe, Colin Garland, Aaron vandenBerg and Angus Brayshaw. Melbourne should claim the 3-2-1, although Gold Coast duo Dion Prestia and Michael Rischitelli could sneak in.
Round 2: Greater Western Sydney v Melbourne, StarTrack Oval
3. D.Shiel (GWS), 2. S.Coniglio (GWS), 1. C.Ward (GWS)
McDonald looms as the most likely Demon to poll, with Viney in contention for his job on Giant Ryan Griffen. Hogan, Christian Salem and Lynden Dunn are also rough chances. Otherwise, expect the Giants to clean up the votes, after a disappointing second half by the Dees resulted in a 45-point loss. Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward shone for GWS, with teammates Adam Treloar and Shane Mumford also vote contenders.
Round 3: Adelaide Crows v Melbourne, Adelaide Oval
3. R.Sloane (Ade), 2. D.Mackay (Ade), 1. S.Thompson (Ade)
Expect Adelaide to have the edge in votes, with Rory Sloane, David Mackay and Scott Thompson standouts in its 25-point win. Vince is perhaps the most likely to poll, after his shutdown performance on Patrick Dangerfield. Heritier Lumumba played arguably his best game for the season and could be a chance. McDonald, Garland, Howe, Mark Jamar, Jones and Neville Jetta were among Melbourne’s better performers, but are unlikely to push into the top three.
Round 4: Richmond v Melbourne, MCG
3. N.Jones (Melb), 2. A.vandenBerg (Melb), 1. J.Hogan (Melb)
Melbourne’s second win of the season could see several Demons in the mix. Jones should gain three votes, after notching up 10 in the AFLCA champion player of the year. The rest should come from vandenBerg, Hogan, Vince, McDonald or Garland. But Richmond’s Shane Edwards is also a genuine prospect to poll, as he was regarded as his side’s best in its 32-point loss. Tiger Ivan Maric is also a chance. It will be an interesting to see which way the umpires go.
Round 5: Melbourne v Fremantle, MCG
3. N.Fyfe (Fre), 2. D.Mundy (Fre), 1. C.Mayne (Fre)
A 68-point loss should result in a clean sweep of votes for Fremantle. Nat Fyfe, David Mundy and Chris Mayne all starred for the Dockers, while Lachie Neale and Danyle Pearce are also right in the mix for votes. Melbourne’s best hopes are McDonald, Garlett, Daniel Cross and vandenBerg.
Round 6: Melbourne v Sydney Swans, MCG
3. J.Kennedy (SS), 2. T.McDonald (Melb), 1. K.Tippett (SS)
Despite going down by 38 points, McDonald was clearly Melbourne’s best and should poll votes. Josh Kennedy was best-on-ground, but other Swans in line to poll include Kurt Tippett, who booted four goals, Kieren Jack, Tom Mitchell, Jarrad McVeigh, Luke Parker and Lewis Jetta. Salem, Cross, Vince and Garlett are outside chances.
Round 7: Hawthorn v Melbourne, MCG
3. S.Mitchell (Haw), 2. J.Roughead (Haw), 1. L.Shiels (Haw)
Don’t expect any Melbourne votes here as a host of Hawthorn players will be jostling for the 3-2-1 after it smashed Melbourne by 105 points. Sam Mitchell, Jarryd Roughead and Liam Shiels all dominated for the Hawks, but don’t be surprised to see one or more of Billy Hartung, Cyril Rioli, Will Langford, Shaun Burgoyne or Bradley Hill figure in the 3-2-1. McDonald, Garlett, Cam Pedersen, Jones and Garland battled hard for the Dees, but it’d be a surprise if any figured in the votes.
Round 8: Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, MCG
3. A.vandenBerg (Melb), 2. N.Jones (Melb), 1. J.Hogan (Melb)
Melbourne should gain the 3-2-1 after notching up its biggest win for the season – a 39-point victory over the Dogs. vandenBerg was arguably best-on-ground, although it will be interesting to see how the votes unfold with Jones, Hogan, Vince, Cross, Pedersen and Jake Spencer all in the mix. For the Dogs, Luke Dahlhaus looms as the most likely to figure in the votes.
Round 9: Melbourne v Port Adelaide, TIO Traeger Park
3. T.Boak (PA), 2. B.Ebert (PA), 1. R.Gray (PA)
The Demons are highly unlikely to figure in the votes, after the Power won by 61 points in Alice Springs. Garland and Brayshaw would be the best prospects, with Hogan, Spencer and Cross roughies for votes. Travis Boak, Brad Ebert and Robbie Gray are the most likely to poll, with Power pair Angus Monfries and Ollie Wines also strong prospects.
Round 10: Melbourne v Collingwood, MCG
3. T.Cloke (Coll), 2. B.Vince (Melb), 1. A.Oxley (Coll)
Collingwood forward Travis Cloke was best-on-ground with seven goals and it would be a major surprise if he didn’t get the three votes. But don’t discount Bernie Vince, as he was super for the Dees, although they went down by 25 points. Pie Adam Oxley should also figure in the voting. Jones was also very good and can’t be discounted, along with Collingwood duo Jack Frost and Marley Williams. Cross and Brayshaw are outside contenders.
Round 11: St Kilda v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium
3. B.Vince (Melb), 2. L.Montagna (St K), 1. J.Hogan (Melb)
This will be a fascinating match to see how the votes fall, as Melbourne lost by two points in the dying stages, yet it could have more players gain votes than St Kilda. It was a see-sawing contest all day, but Vince was arguably the standout player with 38 disposals. He also kept St Kilda star David Armitage in check. Jesse Hogan’s career-best five goals should also see him poll. Leigh Montagna looms as the most likely Saint to feature, although teammates Nick Riewoldt and Sean Dempster are in the mix. Jones, Viney, Jimmy Toumpas, McDonald, Max Gawn, Cross and Howe could also push into the equation.
Round 12: Geelong Cats v Melbourne, Simonds Stadium
3. B.Vince (Melb), 2. M.Gawn (Melb), 1. J.Viney (Melb)
Melbourne’s 24-point win over Geelong was its finest for the season. It was also the first time the Demons beat the Cats since 2006 and at the Cattery since 2005. There will be a host of Melbourne players in contention to fill the 3-2-1, but it’s hard to go past Vince for his best-on-ground display. His 38-disposal performance was regarded as the best individual performance by a Melbourne player this year, according to Champion Data. Gawn played his finest game yet and Viney quelled Geelong star Joel Selwood. But don’t be surprised if Dunn, Jones or Brayshaw poll votes, given they also played outstanding games. Geelong’s Steven Motlop is Geelong’s most likely vote-getter.
Round 13: Bye
Round 14: Melbourne v West Coast Eagles, TIO Stadium
3. J.Darling (WCE), 2. A.Gaff (WCE), 1. C.Masten (WCE)
With the Dees going down by 54 points, a host of Eagles are in jostling for the votes, with Jack Darling, Andrew Gaff and Chris Masten leading the way. Sharrod Wellingham, Dom Sheed and Brad Sheppard are also in line. Melbourne’s best bets are Vince, Jones, Viney and Cross.
Round 15: Essendon v Melbourne, MCG
3. J.Daniher (Ess), 2. M.Hurley (Ess), 1. B.Vince (Melb)
Bernie Vince was again Melbourne’s standout with 35 disposals, in a disappointing nine-point loss. He should figure in the votes, along with key Essendon talls Joe Daniher and Michael Hurley. Another big man, Max Gawn, could also feature, given he had a career-best 58 hit outs. Bomber pair Brendon Goddard and Brent Stanton may also poll. Other chances for Melbourne are Viney, McDonald, Garland, Jones and vandenBerg.
Round 16: Melbourne v Brisbane Lions, MCG
3. J.Hogan (Melb), 2. J.Howe (Melb), 1. J.Viney (Melb)
Expect Hogan (four goals and 11 marks), Howe (13 marks across half-back) and Viney (23 disposals and shutting down Tom Rockliff) to be the most likely vote-getters, but in which order? All were fine players. Gawn (38 hit outs) and Cross (26 possessions) are also vying for votes from Melbourne’s 24-point win. For the Lions, Allen Christensen and Dayne Beams are their best bets.
Round 17: Melbourne v St Kilda, MCG
3. N.Riewoldt (St K), 2. J.Viney (Melb), 1. S.Dempster (St K)
Riewoldt and Dempster were standouts in St Kilda’s 37-point win and should figure in the votes. But expect Viney to be among them, as he was clearly Melbourne’s best, after keeping eventual 2015 St Kilda best and fairest winner Jack Steven to 16 touches. Dylan Roberton, Shane Savage and Jimmy Webster will also be in the mix for the Saints. Howe, Jones, Cross, Gawn and Vince are outside chances for the Dees.
Round 18: Collingwood v Melbourne, MCG
3. B.Vince (Melb), 2. N.Jones (Melb), 1. J.Hogan (Melb)
Vince was best-on-ground with 30 disposals and three goals in Melbourne’s impressive 37-point win. It would be a major surprise if he didn’t land three votes. A stack of Demons will also be in contention, headed up by Nathan Jones and Jesse Hogan, along with Viney, Watts, Gawn, Garland, Jetta, Howe, Cross, Dunn, Dom Tyson and vandenBerg. Collingwood’s Dane Swan, who had 36 disposals, is also a genuine prospect to poll.
Round 19: Melbourne v North Melbourne, MCG
3. S.Higgins (NM), 2. T.Goldstein (NM), 1. J.Hogan (Melb)
Expect North Melbourne to have the edge in votes after its 35-point win. Hogan was arguably Melbourne’s best with four goals and should gain at least one vote. Viney, Chris Dawes and Tyson are other chances for the Dees. Expect Shaun Higgins and Todd Goldstein to figure in the votes for the Roos, with Ben Cunnington and Lindsay Thomas also strong contenders.
Round 20: Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium
3. L.Dahlhaus (WB), 2. M.Wallis (WB), 1. J.Stinger (WB)
It would be a major surprise if any Demons got votes in this match, after they were thrashed by 98 points. McDonald, Viney, Hogan, Jones and Watts are rank outsiders. Exactly who will get them for the Dogs will be interesting though. Dahlhaus looks a lock in for three votes. Mitch Wallis, Jake Stringer, Lachie Hunter, Shane Birss and Easton Wood appear to be the other Bulldogs pushing their claims.
Round 21: Carlton v Melbourne, MCG
3. P.Cripps (Carl), 2. M.Kreuzer (Carl), 1. T.McDonald (Melb)
Patrick Cripps and Matthew Kreuzer were arguably the best two players on the ground, as Melbourne went down to Carlton in a disappointing 23-point loss. McDonald was easily the red and blue’s best and should sneak in for at least one vote, although he could jostle with Carlton duo Andrew Walker and Zach Tuohy. Melbourne pair Jack Grimes and Viv Michie will be its next best chances.
Round 22: Fremantle v Melbourne, Domain Stadium
3. D.Mundy (Fre), 2. D.Pearce (Fre), 1. L.Neale (Fre)
Expect Fremantle to claim the votes, with Mundy, Pearce and Neale the names most likely. Michael Barlow, Stephen Hill and Luke McPharlin are also sure to come under close consideration. Viney, Cross, Gawn, Garlett, Grimes and Salem were among Melbourne’s better performers, but are rough chances at best, given the Dees lost by 54 points.
Round 23: Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney, Etihad Stadium
3. B.Vince (Melb), 2. N.Jones (Melb), 1. J.Viney (Melb)
Melbourne finished the season on a high, notching up a 26-point win over the Giants – the same margin it defeated the Suns by in the opening round. It was the first time since 1997 that Melbourne had won the opening and final rounds of a home and away season. The Demons should scoop up all the votes in this match, with Vince and Jones to jostle for the three. Viney should also poll, but Salem, McDonald, Cross, Hogan, Gawn and James Harmes are also in the frame. For the Giants, Callan Ward and Zac Williams are their most likely prospects.
Matt Burgan’s 2015 Melbourne Brownlow Medal tally guide
Bernie Vince (15 votes)
Nathan Jones (9)
Jesse Hogan (8)
Tom McDonald (6)
Aaron vandenBerg, Jack Viney (5)
Jeff Garlett, Max Gawn, Jeremy Howe (2)
Jack Watts (1)
