FOLLOWING the Queen’s Birthday match, Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse was asked about the lopsided tackle count (91-48) in the Magpies’ favour. “Don’t get caught up in tackles”, he said. “They’re a dime a dozen these days.” His assertion was that often a pure tackle count doesn’t tell the full story - it is more the position on the ground and the effectiveness of the tackle that matters most.
That statement alone highlights the gulf between what the general public (and often the media) understand about statistics, and what the football clubs regard as relevant. It’s time to clear up some of those misconceptions.
Firstly, gone are the days of football clubs employing an army of statisticians to record every kick, mark and handball. Champion Data and Prowess sports - the AFL equivalent of Coke and Pepsi - provide clubs, the public and the media with a wide range of statistics, and have done a brilliant job at supplying more than just basic disposals for many years. We all know how to define a handball or what is classified as a mark in our game. But when you get down to the more subjective statistics, things can get a little tricky.
Since Mick brought it up, let’s start with tackling. Champion Data provide an easy-to-digest tackle count for every match. Prowess Sports split them up into Tackle Attempts and Effective Tackles. The clubs, on the other hand, often break them down even further, preferring to have dedicated statisticians keeping an eye on held tackles, broken tackles, missed tackles and the like.
The most common myth about tackling is that if you have more tackles than the opposition then you’ve probably been chasing backsides all day. Not so, particularly when you look at the fact that almost 60% of teams that have won the tackle count this year have actually won the game. In these days where pressure on the opposition is so vitally important, whichever team gets it right on the day often ends up with the four points.
Clearances are no different. Notoriously hard to define and even harder to agree upon, the football world can’t quite settle on a firm definition. If you gather 10 experienced statisticians (or coaches, for that matter) in a room you could well come away with 10 different interpretations, such is the subjective nature of our game. Is a clearance awarded to the player who gets the ball to a teammate first from a stoppage (think Sam Mitchell and Lenny Hayes)? Or is it the player who eventually clears the stoppage altogether (Brent Moloney and Luke Hodge)? Both major statistics providers have their own contrasting views on clearances. The clubs have even formed their own definition, making things even more difficult for anyone who just wants a straight answer.
But the most common myth, perpetuated further by the media, revolves around contested possessions. The general understanding is that a contested possession is given to a player who is “in and under” and “getting the hard ball”. But when you realise that (as per the Official AFL statistics) contested possessions consist of Hard Ball Gets, Contested Marks, Free Kicks, AND Loose Ball Gets, that theory is immediately dispelled. Dane Swan was credited with 19 contested possessions against Melbourne in Rounds 12 - nine of those were actually loose ball gets. Although it was still a solid contribution to his team, it was due more to Swan’s knack of finding the football, rather than his ability to extract it from underneath the packs.
If you surveyed a dozen members of the media it would be surprising if more than half of them were aware of that definition. Perhaps it is just the wording that has led most people astray. A contested possession is really a “disputed” possession, won when the ball is well and truly up for grabs. Simply picking up the ball as it is rolling towards the boundary line can result in a contested possession.
In the days of fantasy leagues and dream teams the average football fan is much more switched on when it comes to statistics. But a few statistical “myths” make it harder for the general public and the media to understand what is really relevant in today’s game. In the end the only stat that matters is the scoreboard - let’s hope the Demons finish ahead of that ledger more often than not.
That statement alone highlights the gulf between what the general public (and often the media) understand about statistics, and what the football clubs regard as relevant. It’s time to clear up some of those misconceptions.
Firstly, gone are the days of football clubs employing an army of statisticians to record every kick, mark and handball. Champion Data and Prowess sports - the AFL equivalent of Coke and Pepsi - provide clubs, the public and the media with a wide range of statistics, and have done a brilliant job at supplying more than just basic disposals for many years. We all know how to define a handball or what is classified as a mark in our game. But when you get down to the more subjective statistics, things can get a little tricky.
Since Mick brought it up, let’s start with tackling. Champion Data provide an easy-to-digest tackle count for every match. Prowess Sports split them up into Tackle Attempts and Effective Tackles. The clubs, on the other hand, often break them down even further, preferring to have dedicated statisticians keeping an eye on held tackles, broken tackles, missed tackles and the like.
The most common myth about tackling is that if you have more tackles than the opposition then you’ve probably been chasing backsides all day. Not so, particularly when you look at the fact that almost 60% of teams that have won the tackle count this year have actually won the game. In these days where pressure on the opposition is so vitally important, whichever team gets it right on the day often ends up with the four points.
Clearances are no different. Notoriously hard to define and even harder to agree upon, the football world can’t quite settle on a firm definition. If you gather 10 experienced statisticians (or coaches, for that matter) in a room you could well come away with 10 different interpretations, such is the subjective nature of our game. Is a clearance awarded to the player who gets the ball to a teammate first from a stoppage (think Sam Mitchell and Lenny Hayes)? Or is it the player who eventually clears the stoppage altogether (Brent Moloney and Luke Hodge)? Both major statistics providers have their own contrasting views on clearances. The clubs have even formed their own definition, making things even more difficult for anyone who just wants a straight answer.
But the most common myth, perpetuated further by the media, revolves around contested possessions. The general understanding is that a contested possession is given to a player who is “in and under” and “getting the hard ball”. But when you realise that (as per the Official AFL statistics) contested possessions consist of Hard Ball Gets, Contested Marks, Free Kicks, AND Loose Ball Gets, that theory is immediately dispelled. Dane Swan was credited with 19 contested possessions against Melbourne in Rounds 12 - nine of those were actually loose ball gets. Although it was still a solid contribution to his team, it was due more to Swan’s knack of finding the football, rather than his ability to extract it from underneath the packs.
If you surveyed a dozen members of the media it would be surprising if more than half of them were aware of that definition. Perhaps it is just the wording that has led most people astray. A contested possession is really a “disputed” possession, won when the ball is well and truly up for grabs. Simply picking up the ball as it is rolling towards the boundary line can result in a contested possession.
In the days of fantasy leagues and dream teams the average football fan is much more switched on when it comes to statistics. But a few statistical “myths” make it harder for the general public and the media to understand what is really relevant in today’s game. In the end the only stat that matters is the scoreboard - let’s hope the Demons finish ahead of that ledger more often than not.
