COACHES and analysts have had it easy for quite some time. We’ve been able to use simple rankings, averages and differences to get a feel for where our side is situated and how we stack up against our upcoming opposition.
In 2011, however, things are completely different.
We can’t use aggregate rankings because some teams have played fewer matches due to the bye. It’s tough to use differences because a few sides have been able to boost their numbers in their match against the Gold Coast. And it’s even harder to use individual player averages because a large number of them have played limited game time as the substitute.
So as analysts we have to dig down ever further, dissecting every little detail surrounding our matches. And this is where things get really interesting.
Often football technology managers have a love-hate relationship with their assistant coaches - they love giving us a hard time, and we hate admitting we’re wrong. It’s all part of the fun, arguing about definitions after (and sometimes during) every match.
Take clearances, for example. If you gathered 10 football staff in a room and asked them to define a clearance, we could easily come up with 10 different answers.
Melbourne gathers together statistics from a number of different providers, but often the figures can differ greatly between them. One stats provider had Melbourne winning the clearances 39-32 last weekend, while another outlet had the Demons ahead 38-34.
Midfield coach Scott West had different figures again. None of them are wrong, but statistics such as clearances, tackles and contested possessions are so difficult to define. Each provider (and coaching group) has a slightly different definition.
One thing Westy will be pleased about is the scoring from stoppages last weekend - the Demons kicked 12.5 from stoppages against the Suns, the highest stoppage score total this season. Collingwood also managed to dominate the clearances in round four, scoring 10.8 against the Tigers on their way to a 71-point win.
Only one team kicked more than 12 stoppage goals in 2010 - the Cats managed 13 in their 108-point demolition of the Tigers in round six.
Another coach with a tough job of lining up the numbers is ball movement coach Mark Williams. I look forward to our heated discussions every Monday about what constitutes a goal from a midfield turnover. Most of the time he is right, but I like keeping him on his toes by throwing a few curveballs at him along the way. Great fun!
Turning the ball over in the midfield is a major focus of modern teams, and Mark focuses on this area in more detail than anyone. The Demons managed to kick seven goals from midfield turnovers against the Suns, our best result since the round 17 win over the Swans last year.
And spare a thought for defensive coach Brian Royal. Finding reliable statistical indicators for a defensive unit is quite a difficult task. The new pressure statistics from Champion Data this year don’t yet take spoils into account, so the poor defenders are again left on the bottom of the rankings. Maybe next year!
Luckily the custom statistics we collate at every match give us what we need from a defensive perspective, making sure the defenders have something to aim for each week.
Forward coach Josh Mahoney was a little upset that our inside 50 scoring efficiency was mentioned the week we slipped to ninth position after round three. Thankfully he’s a lot happier this week as we’re back into first position with a 45.2 per cent success rate at scoring from our inside 50s.
Josh would be even happier with our success at marking the ball inside 50 on the weekend. The Demons took 29 marks inside 50 (to the Suns’ eight) in round four, clearly a season high. Carlton had 21 against the Suns in round two, while the Magpies notched up 20 against the Tigers last round. Brad Green managed six marks inside 50 on his own.
In context, Geelong and St Kilda led the competition in 2010 for marks inside 50 in a match, with 28 each (both against Port Adelaide).
Individually, Mark LeCras held the 2010 record with eleven of his own in a single game - not surprisingly against Essendon at Etihad Stadium on his way to a 12-goal haul.
Finding the best perspective on the numbers is a never ending work in progress. Over the last four years the club has developed a customised stats system, which gives us exactly what we need in an instant. Perhaps more on that later.
What coaches and analysts must do is get a little smarter with the statistics. The other argument is that we should go the other way and focus on keeping things simple. An interesting debate and one that is far from over.
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