1. Fremantle
60 points (15 wins, two losses) 127.1 per cent
A top-two finish for Fremantle appears increasingly likely now, with the Tigers' heroics opening a three-game buffer over third-placed Hawthorn. There are still some tricky encounters for the Dockers to navigate over the remaining five rounds, starting with the Etihad Stadium clash with the Saints next Sunday. It was St Kilda who inflicted an almighty flogging of the Dockers in the corresponding match last year. While Ross Lyon rates Nat Fyfe a 50/50 chance to play the Saints, why would you put him on the plane for a cross-country flight if you didn't need to? There's a reason why Freo went so hard so early this year and it was so that it could engage in such man management in the run home to the finals.
The run home:
Rd 19: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Domain Stadium
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
2. West Coast
54 points (13 wins, three losses, one draw) 154.40 per cent
The Eagles remain masters of their own destiny with respects to a top-two berth come the end of the season. But this is their biggest fortnight of the season: home to Hawthorn and 'away' to Fremantle. They'd need to play better against the best two teams in the competition than they did on the Gold Coast, but perhaps they were looking a week ahead to the Hawks clash.
Their final three games of the season appear winnable, though the pacy Dogs will enjoy the fast track at Patersons. Significant for the Eagles is that they only leave Perth one more time for the home and away season. Play their cards correctly and the Adelaide Oval clash with the Crows in round 22 will be the last time they travel until the Grand Final.
The run home:
Rd 19: Hawthorn at Domain Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at the Domain Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Domain Stadium
3. Hawthorn
48 points (12 wins, five losses) 164.2 per cent
The Hawks were due an off night after eight straight wins. But if they are to rebound and earn a double chance their margin for error is slim because of their tardy 4-4 start to the season. They no longer control their own destiny and will likely need to win out from here and hope the Eagles lose two of their last five. Saturday night at Patersons against West Coast should be a pearler, but it might also be a prelude to a rematch at the same venue in the first week of the finals.
The run home:
Rd 19: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at Aurora Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
4. Sydney Swans
48 points (12 wins, five losses) 115.9 per cent
The Swans appeared to regain their mojo with an emphatic win over the Crows at the SCG on Saturday evening and on that form a 5-0 finish to the home and away season is possible. A top two berth would rely on West Coast losing twice and the Hawks losing at least once. Still, that scenario is plausible, so expect the Swans to press hard from here. Saturday night at the Cattery should be a beauty, particularly if Adam Goodes returns. It is also one of the few grounds where Lance Franklin has yet to play an AFL game.
The run home:
Rd 19: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at the SCG
Rd 21: GWS at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at the SCG
5. Western Bulldogs
44 points (11 wins, six losses) 113.1 per cent
The 87-point win over Essendon on Sunday improved the Doggies' percentage by seven per cent and enabled them to leapfrog Richmond in fifth place. Their hopes of a home elimination final continue to grow by the week. They should certainly win three of five from here to cement that berth, but the Dogs will fancy themselves on the pacy deck at Patersons Stadium against West Coast and have the tools to beat the Kangaroos as well. Win four of their last five and the top four comes into play as well.
The run home:
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
6. Richmond
44 points (11 wins, six losses) 112.4 per cent
You have to laugh. The Tigers record arguably the best win of the Damien Hardwick era over the rampant Hawthorn on Friday night, yet they drop one place on the ladder. The Tigers are in rare form, but face a tricky trip to Adelaide on Friday night that they have to win to maintain their top four hopes. And their final round clash with North Melbourne is now also shaping as a Friday night game, with the twist that it will be at Etihad Stadium as a Tiger home game but on North's home deck.
The run home:
Rd 19: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 20: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
7. North Melbourne
40 points (10 wins, seven losses) 107.2 per cent
The Kangaroos have taken care of business with four straight wins, picking up some important percentage along the way, and should get past the Demons and Saints in the next fortnight. But their finals fate hinges on their last three games and there is every chance the Richmond game in round 23 will be a case of 'win and get in, or lose and go home'. Expect Channel Seven to punt on that scenario and make it the Friday night game. The Freo clash two weeks earlier could be pivotal as well as the Kangas look to finally win a game against a team above them on the ladder.
The run home:
Rd 19: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 20: St Kilda at Blundstone Arena
Rd 21: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
8. Geelong
38 points (nine wins, seven losses, one no result) 102.4 per cent
Richmond had its 'big-boy month' and now it is the turn of the Cats. They'll need to win three of their remaining five to get into the finals but could relieve some pressure if they can get past one or both of the Swans and Hawks in the next fortnight. Depending on results before then, the round 23 clash with Adelaide might also be a 'winner makes the finals' encounter. Add to the intrigue over the future of Patrick Dangerfield and this match could have everything.
The run home:
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 23: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
-------------------------------------------------
9. Adelaide
38 points (nine wins, seven losses, one no result) 102.2 per cent
Just 0.2 of a per cent is what's keeping the Crows out of the eight and like the Cats ahead of them they'll need to win at least three of their next five to make the finals. There have been bigger games for Adelaide this year in the context of all that has transpired this season, but in pure football terms, none more than Friday night at Adelaide Oval. Win that and they'll likely control their own destiny through until at least the season finale at Geelong, which we at AFL.com.au are calling the Patrick Dangerfield Future Fest.
The run home:
Rd 19: Richmond at Adelaide Oval
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: West Coast at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
10. Greater Western Sydney
36 points (nine wins, eight losses) 100.3 per cent
The Giants will need to win at least four out of five to make the finals, so they're going to need to spring an upset or two along the way, either against Port at Adelaide Oval or the Swans at Spotless Stadium in what shapes as a monster clash between the two NSW clubs. Melbourne's improved form of late suggests that the last game of the year won't be a gimme, either. One of these days the Demons will win a game at Etihad Stadium.
The run home:
Rd 19: Essendon at Spotless Stadium
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
11. Collingwood
32 points (eight wins, nine losses) 111.3 per cent
Collingwood's all-too-familiar second half of the season swoon continues. The Pies had to beat Melbourne on Saturday to have any realistic chance of making the finals, but now they'll have to win out to have any chance. They should snap their six-match losing streak against the Blues, but the Sydney Swans on the road in a fortnight might end their hopes for good. Sadly for the Pies it will be at the SCG where they haven’t played since 2000, rather than ANZ Stadium where they've won 10 of 13.
The run home:
Rd 19: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
12. Port Adelaide
32 points (eight wins, nine losses) 102.9 per cent
There's no margin for error remaining for Port, which needs to win out from here to have a chance at making the finals. The end could come on Saturday against the red-hot Western Bulldogs or perhaps a fortnight later at the same venue against the Hawks. But Port have been competitive with three wins and a narrow defeat in their last four games, so they'll compete hard for as long as there is a mathematical chance, and knowing coach Ken Hinkley until the final moment of the final game of the season.
The run home:
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: GWS at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval
