CONVENTIONAL wisdom says it takes plenty of brains and application to succeed at AFL Fantasy. A feel for advanced mathematics, a journo's eagle-eye on injury lists and reserves form, and a stock trader's nose for spotting a bargain, or releasing a dud.
But sometimes, you can forget all about hard work, and just pick players called Tom Lynch or those with a surname of Mitchell.
With Sam Mitchell (MID, $601,000) as captain, and Tom Mitchell (MID, $620,000) in your midfield last week, along with the pair of Lynchs (one Crow, one Sun), you would have had 665 points in the bag from four players. Well, five players, if you were really true to the strategy and had Kane Mitchell (MID, $334,000) in your squad.
Contrast that with a pricey four-pronged midfield of Tom Rockliff, Todd Goldstein, Mitch Duncan and Patrick Dangerfield who managed just 177 between them.
Rockliff is out for the next fortnight, which will already quicken the pulses of Fantasy coaches (he's in nearly half of all teams), but there will be few coaches who will put him on the chopping block this early.
Instead it's backlines that are causing the most headaches, just as many predicted when the Fantasy season began.
With stalwarts like Jarrad McVeigh (DEF/MID, $538,000) and Jimmy Bartel (DEF/MID, $457,000) injured or down on numbers, points in the backline are at a premium.
The quick fix, it seems, is to trade in as many Bulldogs as possible down back. The hard-running Dogs have five of the top 10 Fantasy defenders from the first two rounds. And that doesn't even include round two's top Fantasy price-rise in Marcus Adams (DEF/FWD, $216,000).
Josh Gibson (DEF, $500,000) might also be worth your coin, particularly if the Bulldogs opt to pay him the same level of respect that the Eagles did last week. The former Roo got some serious leather-poisoning going in the first half of the Grand Final rematch, and finished with 44 touches, nine marks and 157 Fantasy points.
Given his brilliance as a reader of the play, an outstanding mark and typically strong Hawthorn kicking, it's surprising that Gibson only features in nine per cent of Fantasy teams. His break-even this week is just 42 against the Dogs, so make the trade now before his value surpasses someone like Heath Shaw's (DEF, $522,000).
Top five price rises
- Marcus Adams (DEF/FWD, Western Bulldogs) +$44,000: $216,000
- George Hewett (MID, Sydney Swans), +$40,000: $198,000
- Tom Papley (FWD, Sydney Swans), +$39,000: $189,000
- Darcy Parish (MID, Essendon), +$37,000: $379,000
- Aaron Hall (FWD/MID, Gold Coast), +$34,000: $476,000
Top five price falls
- Tom Rockliff (MID, Brisbane Lions), -$40,000: $538,000
- Michael Rischitelli (MID, Gold Coast), -$38,000: $489,000
- Jared Polec (MID, Port Adelaide), -$30,000: $358,000
- David Mundy (MID, Fremantle), -$27,000: $421,000
- Lachie Hansen (DEF, North Melbourne), -$27,000: $313,000
Get 'em in
Michael Hartley (DEF, $147,000): An assured debut last week for the mature-aged Don and he looks set for a solid Fantasy career.
Jarrad Waite (FWD, $461,000): Yeah, I know. It's Jarrad Waite. But the Roos are cruising, they're playing the dispirited Demons this week and $461,000 is just too cheap to ignore.
Will Langford (MID, $427,000): Looks back to his late-2014 levels and his break-even is just 40 this week. Free money.
Bye for now
Jared Polec (MID, $358,000): One disposal in the first half of the Showdown. No warning for the ex-Lion – axe immediately.
Michael Rischitelli (MID, $489,000): Others are finally picking up the slack left to 'Rischa' last year so his Fantasy numbers are on the slide.
Jack Watts (FWD/MID, $373,000): Reverted to his mean against the Dons, although he was far from the only Demon to disappoint.
