A MELBOURNE win in round one, an eye-catching Christian Petracca, 13 wins or more, finals for the first time since 2006 and back-to-back best and fairest awards for Clayton Oliver.

These are among the most popular thoughts among more than 30 football journalists surveyed about Melbourne’s prospects for 2018.

AFL Media’s Nick Bowen and Herald Sun’s Jon Ralph have tipped as many as 16 wins for the Demons, while Sam McClure was the only media identity to tip Melbourne as high as third.

Only a handful of journalists have tipped a Melbourne loss in round one, while not one believes the team will go backwards in 2018.

Playmaker Christian Petracca had the most votes for the Melbourne player to watch in 2018, while key forward Jesse Hogan and draftee Bayley Fritsch were also right up there. Boom recruit Jake Lever and skilled Christian Salem also had their fans.  

Clayton Oliver has been backed by 12 journos to go back-to-back in the Keith ‘Bluey’ Truscott Memorial Trophy, while Max Gawn and Petracca were the next most favoured.

Last year, Channel 7’s Mark Stevens correctly tipped Melbourne to finish ninth with 12 wins, while The Age’s Scott Spits also predicted the Demons to claim ninth position.

Sam Edmund, Nat Edwards, Mark Stevens, Courtney Walsh, Rebecca Williams and Lauren Wood were among the journos to tip 12 wins for the Demons last year. 

And Fox’s Julian De Stoop correctly forecast Clayton Oliver to win the club’s best and fairest award. 

Here are this year’s predications …

MARTIN BLAKE (THE AGE)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Christian Petracca
How many matches will Melbourne win? 13
Where will Melbourne finish? Fifth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Nathan Jones


NICK BOWEN (AFL MEDIA)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Christian Petracca
How many matches will Melbourne win? 16
Where will Melbourne finish? Fourth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Max Gawn


ASHLEY BROWNE (AFL MEDIA)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? I think the Dees are going to get up. I think they’ll be cherry ripe for this one.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? They tell me the boy, Bayley Fritsch, is going very well. I’m looking forward to watching him play.
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14 or 15 wins
Where will Melbourne finish? In my ladder, I’ve got them in the top six. Fifth or sixth.
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Christian Petracca

TOM BROWNE (CHANNEL 7)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne will beat Geelong
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Clayton Oliver, again
How many matches will Melbourne win? 13
Where will Melbourne finish? Fifth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Christian Petracca

DANIEL CHERNY (THE AGE)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Oscar McDonald
How many matches will Melbourne win? 15
Where will Melbourne finish? Fourth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Clayton Oliver

JAY CLARK (HERALD SUN)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Jake Lever. He’ll prove himself to be an outstanding pick-up and one of the best defenders in the competition.
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Fourth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? ‘Clarry’ (Clayton Oliver) will go back-to-back

BEN COLLINS (AFL MEDIA)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Bayley Fritsch
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Seventh
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Max Gawn

ROHAN CONNOLLY (FOOTYOLOGY/MARNGROOK)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? I’ve got a fair bit of time for the Demons this year, so I’ll have to go with them.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? I reckon Mitch Hannan. I really liked the look of what he was doing last year and I think he can be one of the more effective medium-sized forwards in the competition.
How many matches will Melbourne win? Brace yourselves: 15
Where will Melbourne finish? Fourth, and you can read that on the Footyology website. I’ve done a full analysis of Melbourne. I really think, seriously, that they’re ready for it. I love the midfield depth and I think their defence is both attacking and defensive, when it needs to be, and a great spread of goalkickers. And they’ve got a great ruckman in Max Gawn, so all of the elements are there.
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Michael Hibberd. A) because he’s a great rebounding defender and B) because he’s a ripping bloke.

JULIAN DE STOOP (FOX SPORTS NEWS)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Angus Brayshaw
How many matches will Melbourne win? I think Melbourne will finish top four, so I’ll say 15 to 16 wins
Where will Melbourne finish? Fourth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Clayton Oliver will go back-to-back

SAM EDMUND (HERALD SUN)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Christian Petracca
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Fifth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Max Gawn

NAT EDWARDS (AFL MEDIA)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Geelong, sorry!
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Christian Salem
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Seventh
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Max Gawn

ANNE FEDOROWYTSCH (AFL MEDIA)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Jake Lever
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Fourth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Clayton Oliver

BEN GUTHRIE (AFL MEDIA)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? I think Melbourne is going to be very tough to beat in round one. I think they’re very well primed for a big start to the season and I think Geelong will have to be at their best. So, I think the Demons will win.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? I think Christian Salem will take the next step and become a really consistent AFL player, after injury issues in the past. I think the inside midfield role will really suit him, as that’s been shown across the JLT Series.
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14 or 15 wins
Where will Melbourne finish? I’ve got them finishing in the top five, so I think they’ll finish fifth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? I think Clayton Oliver will go back-to-back. I think the stuff he showed in the JLT showed he has improved his outside game and I think he’s become a really elite player of the competition.

ANNA HARRINGTON (FOX SPORTS)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Jesse Hogan
How many matches will Melbourne win? 15
Where will Melbourne finish? Sixth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Clayton Oliver, but expect Jesse Hogan and Christian Petracca to finish high in the count

BRUCE MATTHEWS (AFL MEDIA)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Bayley Fritsch
How many matches will Melbourne win? 13
Where will Melbourne finish? Seventh
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Christian Petracca

SAM MCCLURE (SEN/CHANNEL 7/THE AGE)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? The Demons and I’m not just saying that because I’m speaking to the Demons. I really think they’ll win. They’ve got match winners across the board – I really, truly believe that about the Dees. I’d be say if Patrick Dangerfield was absolutely playing as well. Both sides have some injury concerns, but it’s going to be a fascinating contest. I just think across the board that the Dees have the depth to get it done.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Look out for Sam Weideman this year. He’s played 10 games and I think it could be a breakout year for him. There is a spot for him in the forward line, I think, next to Jesse Hogan and the like. He’s the one to watch for me.
How many matches will Melbourne win? 15
Where will Melbourne finish? Third
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Jack Viney

GLENN McFARLANE (HERALD SUN)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne by five points
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Christian Petracca is the player to watch. He will take it to a new level in 2018.
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Sixth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Clayton Oliver will win back-to-back Truscott Memorial Trophies.

TOM MORRIS (FOX SPORTS NEWS/INSIDE MELBOURNE)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne will win and I think Melbourne will win quite handsomely in the end. I’ll say by four goals.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? The obvious one is Christian Petracca, but I think Angus Brayshaw. He’s been harshly dealt with by concussion in the last couple of years, and I’m looking forward to watching him play, because I still reckon he’s a gun.
How many matches will Melbourne win? The Dees will 14 matches this year – well up from last year and they’ll make the finals. They will win at least one final, which I think will be a successful season for the Dees.
Where will Melbourne finish? I think fifth.
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? I would’ve said Jack Viney, but he’s injured at the start of the season. I think the best player in the team – and the most valuable player in the team, when he’s at his best – is Max Gawn, and I think he’s ready to go this year. I think Max Gawn will win the best and fairest.

DINNY NAVARATNAM (AFL MEDIA)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Jesse Hogan
How many matches will Melbourne win? 13
Where will Melbourne finish? Sixth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Clayton Oliver

 
OHN ‘SAM’ NEWMAN (THE FOOTY SHOW)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? What about Melbourne. You’re expecting me to say Geelong. Let’s be diverse. Let’s be unpredictable. [Let’s say] Melbourne. I think they’re maybe a goal-and-a-half a quarter better side, so let’s say six goals.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? One of the few [I know] – I know them all of course – but I think Max Gawn.
How many matches will Melbourne win? I think probably 12
Where will Melbourne finish? Probably 12^th (laughing)
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? I think Clayton Oliver could be a very firm favourite as we speak and stand here now – a week before the season starts

JASON PHELAN (AUSTRALIAN ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Christian Petracca
How many matches will Melbourne win? 13
Where will Melbourne finish? Seventh
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Max Gawn

JEN PHELAN (AFL MEDIA)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Bayley Fritsch
How many matches will Melbourne win? 12
Where will Melbourne finish? Seventh
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Jake Lever

JON RALPH (HERALD SUN)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne. I’m really bullish. I think the midfield is fantastic – no doubt, Melbourne will win.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? It’s boring, but it’s Christian Petracca. My theory is that if Christian Petracca can be All-Australian, then Melbourne can win the flag and break the drought. We’re all bullish on him, but I’m just going a bit further.
How many matches will Melbourne win? 16. If I’m going to pick them for top four, it’s got to be 16. You beat Geelong in round one and then all of a sudden it’s just an avalanche – and the red and blue army will start going.
Where will Melbourne finish? Fourth. And then the world’s their oyster.
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? I’ve got to go Christian Petracca. Petracca from Jack Viney, from Jake Lever.

PETER RYAN (THE AGE)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Well, that’s a tough question, because I live in Geelong. With Patrick Dangerfield missing, I’ll go Melbourne.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? That’s a really good question. We saw Bayley Fritsch in the JLT Community Series play well, but I’m interested in Jake Lever and how he’s going to go in his new colours and new environment.
How many matches will Melbourne win? 12
Where will Melbourne finish? I’ve tipped them to finish ninth – much to the disgust of a few people – but that was about a month ago, and I’m starting to feel a bit shaky on that, but I’ll stick with it. I hope they actually break the drought and get into the finals though.
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Jack Viney gives a few other players a chance. Nathan Jones is getting a bit old – no disrespect to ‘Chunky’ Jones. So, that’s a tough question, but I’ll say Christian Petracca.

ELIZA SEWELL (HERALD SUN)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? If Danger and Ablett play, sorry, I think it’s the Cats
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Already a fan of Christian Petracca and can’t wait to see how he goes this year
How many matches will Melbourne win? 13
Where will Melbourne finish? Seventh
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Christian Petracca

SCOTT SPITS (THE AGE)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Geelong
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Jesse Hogan
How many matches will Melbourne win? Demons will win 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Melbourne will finish seventh
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Clayton Oliver

CLINT STANAWAY (CHANNEL 9/INSIDE MELBOURNE)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Bayley Fritsch
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Sixth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Christian Petracca

MARK STEVENS (CHANNEL 7/RSN 927)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne, if Danger misses
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Jayden Hunt will become a genuine star
How many matches will Melbourne win? 13
Where will Melbourne finish? Sixth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Max Gawn

JORDAN TUNBRIDGE (3AW)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? I’m picking Melbourne. They’re well-placed this year. There is plenty of upside for the Dees, I think. But it’ll be interesting to see both sides, as they’re facing quite a few injury concerns. I can’t think of a better encounter for round one at the ‘G.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? I think all of the fans are pretty keen to see how Jake Lever turns out. It almost seems that he was the type of player missing for Melbourne last year. So, Jake Lever is the one and whether he lives up to the expectation.
How many matches will Melbourne win? I’d say 13 or 14 – around that number of wins for the finals. I agree with a lot of the AFL captains, who are tipping Melbourne to make it.
Where will Melbourne finish? I’d say fifth or sixth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Considering Clayton Oliver has got through the pre-season injury-free, I’d say he’s a pretty good chance again to win it again. So, I’ll say Oliver.

CALLUM TWOMEY (AFL MEDIA)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Geelong
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Charlie Spargo
How many matches will Melbourne win? 13
Where will Melbourne finish? Eighth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Christian Petracca

ROGER VAUGHAN (AUSTRALIAN ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Geelong
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? He’s already established, but just seeing him in the JLT [Community Series] game against St Kilda, I think Jesse Hogan is really going to go to a new level this year.
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Maybe get inside the top four
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Max Gawn or Jesse Hogan

COURTNEY WALSH (THE AUSTRALIAN)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Jesse Hogan. Been impressed with his pre-season and looking for him to rebound strongly after a difficult 2017.
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Sixth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Max Gawn

ROB WATERS (CHANNEL 10)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Given Geelong’s injury problems, it’s probably Melbourne’s best chance, although the Demons might be missing some as well. It’s a big, big game, but I think Melbourne should win.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? My Melbourne player to watch this year is not a new player, but it’s Christian Salem. If he gets a good run at it this year, I think he should be able to finally establish himself as a really good senior footballer. I think there is a lot to work with there. I hope he gets an injury-free run, because I really like watching him play.
How many matches will Melbourne win? I think Melbourne will win 14 matches this year
Where will Melbourne finish? Fifth or sixth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? I might back the skipper, Jack Viney, to win this year’s best and fairest. Although I reckon Clayton Oliver is going to be one of Melbourne’s best players of the last 30 years, I don’t know if he can go back-to-back at such a young age, so I’ll stick with Jack.

LAUREN WOOD (HERALD SUN)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Geelong. Sorry Dees, [I] think the Cats will be tough to stop this year and they will hit the ground running. Should be a great contest.
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? Bayley Fritsch. He attracted plenty of attention during his time in the VFL and has continued that in the pre-season. He has fitted in beautifully to the Dees' attacking setup and could be on track to feature in round one. No mean feat for his first year at the club.
How many matches will Melbourne win? 13
Where will Melbourne finish? Sixth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Max Gawn. He's really stepped up his game over the recent pre-season and reckon he's in for a big one after admitting his disappointment after last year's injury. Fear the beard.

MELISSA WOODS (AUSTRALIAN ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Who will win round one: Melbourne or Geelong? Melbourne
Which Melbourne player is the one to watch? A fit and healthy Jesse Hogan
How many matches will Melbourne win? 14
Where will Melbourne finish? Fifth
Who will win Melbourne’s best and fairest? Clayton Oliver again