THERE are right and wrong ways to view statistics.
Dream Teams and Fantasy Leagues have taken over entire offices on Monday mornings, each “coach” keen to see how their side stacks up against thousands of others. Prizes for winning the competitions are incredible, but often it’s the bragging rights among friends, which are just as valued.
Has this diminished the importance of stats in general? Too often people equate a good game with a good Dream Team score - there are far better measurements of an individual (or team) contribution than a simple points’ formula.
One of the more valuable methods of looking at team statistics is differences. When differences are taken into account, the figures only reflect how effective you have been against your direct opponent.
For example, the Demons had 48 more kicks than the Swans, giving them a +48 difference in that category (and the Swans a -48 figure of course). Over the 17 rounds, Melbourne is +111 in disposal differences, or an average of 6.5 more disposals than its direct opponent.
Pure statistical rankings are often misleading.
If a team has a lot of behinds kicked against them, for example, their chances of scoring more from kick-ins are obviously greater - the more opportunities, the more chance you have of success.
In the Swans’ premiership year of 2005, they ranked clearly first for total clearances. They also averaged 88 stoppages per game, five more than the next side. The more opportunities to clear the ball from stoppage, the higher the clearance figure will be.
Looking at the same statistic in terms of differences, the Swans only averaged two more clearances per game than their direct opponent, ranked sixth.
Still a positive result for a team, which was widely recognised as a strong stoppage side, but not nearly as outstanding as it looks compared to the pure totals.
Fast forward to 2010 and there is one clear standout when looking at clearance differences.
The majority of the competition is reasonably close - Brisbane is ranked 16th with a -5 difference, Fremantle ranked second with +1.9.
The team ranked first? The Western Bulldogs, with an incredible +9.2 average clearance difference.
Moving towards finals, which have often been won and lost at stoppages, this figure is an ominous sign for any opponent. Nine more opportunities to score from a clearance per match is a telling statistic.
An interesting figure from Melbourne’s perspective comes from centre bounce clearances.
Ranked 10th in total centre bounce clearances, the Dees are actually +20 in differences for the year, leaving them behind only the Bulldogs (+52, amazingly) overall.
While they’ve had less opportunity than some of the higher scoring sides (or the teams that have had a lot of goals kicked against them), the Demons have done well to capitalise when they get their chance.
Other standouts this year include Geelong, who have made the most of its high-possession game style with a +77.1 disposal difference, and Collingwood with a +10 effective tackle difference to lead the competition.
Ten more effective tackles per match might not seem like much, but often half of them result in direct turnovers.
Difference figures will become crucial at the end of the regular season, with finals footy all about beating your direct opponent.
And hopefully your Dream Teams are heading towards glory as well.
Dream Teams and Fantasy Leagues have taken over entire offices on Monday mornings, each “coach” keen to see how their side stacks up against thousands of others. Prizes for winning the competitions are incredible, but often it’s the bragging rights among friends, which are just as valued.
Has this diminished the importance of stats in general? Too often people equate a good game with a good Dream Team score - there are far better measurements of an individual (or team) contribution than a simple points’ formula.
One of the more valuable methods of looking at team statistics is differences. When differences are taken into account, the figures only reflect how effective you have been against your direct opponent.
For example, the Demons had 48 more kicks than the Swans, giving them a +48 difference in that category (and the Swans a -48 figure of course). Over the 17 rounds, Melbourne is +111 in disposal differences, or an average of 6.5 more disposals than its direct opponent.
Pure statistical rankings are often misleading.
If a team has a lot of behinds kicked against them, for example, their chances of scoring more from kick-ins are obviously greater - the more opportunities, the more chance you have of success.
In the Swans’ premiership year of 2005, they ranked clearly first for total clearances. They also averaged 88 stoppages per game, five more than the next side. The more opportunities to clear the ball from stoppage, the higher the clearance figure will be.
Looking at the same statistic in terms of differences, the Swans only averaged two more clearances per game than their direct opponent, ranked sixth.
Still a positive result for a team, which was widely recognised as a strong stoppage side, but not nearly as outstanding as it looks compared to the pure totals.
Fast forward to 2010 and there is one clear standout when looking at clearance differences.
The majority of the competition is reasonably close - Brisbane is ranked 16th with a -5 difference, Fremantle ranked second with +1.9.
The team ranked first? The Western Bulldogs, with an incredible +9.2 average clearance difference.
Moving towards finals, which have often been won and lost at stoppages, this figure is an ominous sign for any opponent. Nine more opportunities to score from a clearance per match is a telling statistic.
An interesting figure from Melbourne’s perspective comes from centre bounce clearances.
Ranked 10th in total centre bounce clearances, the Dees are actually +20 in differences for the year, leaving them behind only the Bulldogs (+52, amazingly) overall.
While they’ve had less opportunity than some of the higher scoring sides (or the teams that have had a lot of goals kicked against them), the Demons have done well to capitalise when they get their chance.
Other standouts this year include Geelong, who have made the most of its high-possession game style with a +77.1 disposal difference, and Collingwood with a +10 effective tackle difference to lead the competition.
Ten more effective tackles per match might not seem like much, but often half of them result in direct turnovers.
Difference figures will become crucial at the end of the regular season, with finals footy all about beating your direct opponent.
And hopefully your Dream Teams are heading towards glory as well.
