WHATEVER happened to the prototype plug-and-play Fantasy gun?
I remember the times where you could put the big C next to Tom Rockliff, pop Brett Deledio up forward, Jarrad McVeigh down back and bank at least 400 points.
These days, it's impossible to know who to trust.
When Jarrad Waite (FWD, $511,000) is one of the most consistent Fantasy forwards, surely the four horsemen of the apocalypse can't be far from a visit to Etihad.
Even Mr Dependlebury from Collingwood hasn't been the safest of selections, topping the ton just twice from his four games and spending plenty of time mopping the mistakes of a panicked backline.
Another sign of strange goings-on is that two Bombers are in the top five Fantasy scorers – David Zaharakis (MID, $529,000) and Zach Merrett (FWD/MID, $590,000) and that's some achievement from a club struggling to keep its competitive head above water.
Last week's top score (2206) in Fantasy Classic was easily the lowest of the four rounds so far, which shows coaches are struggling as the game's surest bets prove consistently inconsistent.
So who can you select with some degree of certainty?
Obviously Sam Mitchell (MID, $629,000) is in red-hot form, and worth every cent if you have the cash.
Remarkably, the statistically safest pick right now is rookie Crow Mitch McGovern – who has a consistency rating of 84 (100 being the best) which is based on how much his score deviates from week to week.
Yes, McGovern is only averaging 60 points per game, but for a cash cow, that's exceptional and the best thing is, you know he's good for it!
The other cheapie who has delivered regular numbers is Cat Lincoln McCarthy (FWD, $204,000). He has a consistency rating of 69 and, while he missed last week's win over Essendon, he is a strong chance to regain his place against the Power on Saturday.
If you want someone a little higher up the pecking order to rely on, new Pie Adam Treloar (MID, $559,000) is your man with a consistency rating of 70, followed by Bulldog Jack Macrae (MID, $531,000) who rates 68.
These are the closest players you will find after four rounds to set and forget. Mitchell himself has a strong consistency rating of 66.
So if you want 'certainty', these are the men to set you on that path.
But what's AFL Fantasy without a bit of risk? It's certainly not a team missing Jarrad Waite.
Top five price rises
- Orazio Fantasia (DEF, Essendon) +$39,000: $376,000
- Caleb Daniel (FWD, Western Bulldogs), +$38,000: $403,000
- Josh Wagner (DEF, Melbourne), +$36,000: $166,000
- Marcus Adams (DEF/FWD, Western Bulldogs), +$36,000: $310,000
- Matt Dea (DEF, Essendon), +$35,000: $287,000
Top five price falls
- Marc Murphy (MID, Carlton), -$45,000: $486,000
- Stefan Martin (RUC, Brisbane Lions), -$40,000: $520,000
- Jamie Cripps (FWD, West Coast), -$35,000: $384,000
- Marcus Bontempelli (MID, Western Bulldogs), -$31,000: $423,000
- Luke Hodge (MID, Hawthorn), -$31,000: $562,000
Get 'em in
Jack Ziebell (MID, $519,000): A breakeven of 58, and his performance against Freo showed he'd truly arrived. Serious value.
Mathew Stokes (FWD/MID, $429,000): Solid against his old club last week, low breakeven, and will be keen to shine in front of a big Anzac Day crowd.
Dean Kent (FWD, $239,000): Breakeven of -5, and with the Demons on the up and facing the lacklustre Tigers, Kent will make you plenty of cash.
Bye for now
Stefan Martin (RUC, $520,000): If he recovers to play, his breakeven will be huge. Wait a week, and grab him if he drops under $500,000.
Jason Johannisen (DEF, $469,000): It was fine while it lasted but this hamstrung Dog won't be barking for another three months.
Jesse Lonergan (MID, $358,000): Four weeks is a solid sample size to show that while Lonergan is a serviceable player, he's a mid-priced Fantasy option and little more. Discard for Daniel Wells or (gulp) Jack Watts.
