IF THERE’S one thing we know for certain, it’s that nobody knows how the Brownlow Medal count will go.
In a 3-2-1 voting system determined by the umpires of each match, it’s beyond difficult to predict who they will deem best afield each week.
But for some reason, every year, we try regardless.
Last year’s vote-count caused a bit of a stir, with some abnormally high tallies.
Ollie Wines polled an equal-record number of votes (36) to take ‘Charlie’ home, narrowly ahead of Marcus Bontempelli (33), Clayton Oliver (31) and Sam Walsh (30).
For a number of years, the Brownlow has been labelled as a 'midfielders award', and it reached new heights last season.
Max Gawn polled 16 votes to place 17th in the count, making him the highest placed non-midfielder in the league.
On the back of the media scrutiny, expect a correction early this season with some forwards and defenders to steal some votes, causing a slightly lower tally for the overall winner.
This could make for a close count towards the end, and it would be a surprise if anyone had a season worthy of breaking the mid-30s once again.
The top contenders for the award remain midfield stars, with Lachie Neale, Clayton Oliver, Patrick Cripps, Andrew Brayshaw, Touk Miller and Christian Petracca the main fancies.
The Demons won 16 of their 22 matches in 2022, which traditionally means their players are likely to feature in the votes for most of those games.
Oliver has a good record with the umpires, polling 13 times last year, including eight best-on-grounds, as does Petracca who polled 23 votes last season and 20 the year before (in a shortened season).
So let’s take a closer look at who could be in the mix for their efforts each week.
Round 1: Melbourne def Western Bulldogs
In the mix: Petracca (38 disposals, 2 goals), Brown (3 goals, 3 behinds), Naughton (4 goals), B Smith (33 disposals), Oliver (32 disposals), Langdon (22 disposals, 1 goal)
Round 2: Gold Coast def by Melbourne
In the mix: Petracca (40 disposals), Jackson (21 disposals, 2 goals), Bowey (34 disposals), Miller (38 disposals), Oliver (34 disposals, 1 goal)
Round 3: Melbourne def Essendon
In the mix: Oliver (38 disposals), Brayshaw (34 disposals), Weideman (4 goals, 3 behinds), Langdon (31 disposals, 1 goal), Wright (4 goals)
Round 4: Port Adelaide def by Melbourne
In the mix: Gawn (25 disposals, 1 goal), May (23 disposals), Viney (21 disposals, 1 goal), Harmes (23 disposals, 2 goals), Jordon (27 disposals)
Round 5: Melbourne def GWS
In the mix: May (24 disposals), Gawn (21 disposals, 2 goals), Petracca (30 disposals, 2 goals), Oliver (31 disposals), Spargo (22 disposals, 1 goal)
Round 6: Richmond def by Melbourne
In the mix: Oliver (41 disposals), Langdon (30 disposals, 1 goal), Vlastuin (30 disposals), May (20 disposals), Petracca (25 disposals, 1 goal), Brayshaw (25 disposals), Sparrow (24 disposals)
Round 7: Melbourne def Hawthorn
In the mix: Gawn (29 disposals, 2 goals), Oliver (33 disposals), Moore (33 disposals, 1 goal), Sicily (26 disposals), Petracca (31 disposals, 1 goal)
Round 8: Melbourne def St Kilda
In the mix: Oliver (38 disposals), Brayshaw (31 disposals, 1 goal), Petracca (36 disposals), Langdon (39 disposals), May (16 disposals on King)
Round 9: West Coast def by Melbourne
In the mix: Petracca (28 disposals, 2 goals), Pickett (20 disposals, 3 goals), Viney (27 disposals), Oliver (29 disposals), McDonald (4 goals), Brayshaw (24 disposals), Gawn (17 disposals)
Round 10: North Melbourne def by Melbourne
In the mix: Oliver (45 disposals), Petracca (30 disposals), Sparrow (20 disposals, 1 goal), T McDonald (3 goals), Davies-Uniacke (27 disposals)
Round 11: Melbourne def by Fremantle
In the mix: Lobb (3 goals), Schultz (18 disposals, 4 goals), Frederick (17 disposals, 2 goals), Darcy (16 disposals, 1 goal, 32 hit-outs), Cox (19 disposals), Oliver (36 disposals),
Round 12: Melbourne def by Sydney
In the mix: Gawn (28 disposals, 3 goals, 30 hit-outs), Reid (16 disposals, 3 goals), L McDonald (16 disposals, 3 goals), Mills (26 disposals), Viney (32 disposals), P McCartin (15 disposals)
Round 13: Collingwood def Melbourne
In the mix: Oliver (43 disposals, 1 goal), Cox (21 disposals, 1 goal), Mihocek (4 goals), Crisp (29 disposals, 1 goal), Brayshaw (29 disposals), Moore, Viney (33 disposals, 1 goal)
Round 15: Melbourne def Brisbane
In the mix: Viney (34 disposals), Lever (20 disposals), Petracca (32 disposals), Oliver (35 disposals), Jordon (24 disposals, 2 goals), Jackson (21 disposals, 1 goal)
Round 16: Adelaide def by Melbourne
In the mix: Petracca (33 disposals, 1 goal), Oliver (36 disposals), May (18 disposals), Dawson (30 disposals, 1 goal), Lever (17 disposals), Langdon (33 disposals, 1 goal), Keays (30 disposals, 2 goals)
Round 17: Geelong def Melbourne
In the mix: C Guthrie (28 disposals, 2 goals), Duncan (32 disposals, 2 goals), Dangerfield (31 disposals, 4 behinds), Petracca (21 disposals, 3 goals), Oliver (34 disposals, 1 goal), Atkins (21 disposals, 1 goal)
Round 18: Melbourne def Port Adelaide
In the mix: Pickett (6 goals), Petracca (30 disposals), Rozee (33 disposals, 1 goal), Boak (29 disposals, 1 goal), Viney (28 disposals)
Round 19: Western Bulldogs def Melbourne
In the mix: Ugle-Hagan (5 goals), Bontempelli (26 disposals, 1 goal), May (19 disposals), Treloar (28 disposals, 1 goal), Oliver (28 disposals), Macrae (29 disposals, 1 goal), English (20 disposals, 2 goals)
Round 20: Fremantle def by Melbourne
In the mix: Viney (33 disposals), Petracca (30 disposals), Angus Brayshaw (28 disposals), May (13 disposals on Taberner), Fritsch (3 goals), Mundy (35 disposals)
Round 21: Melbourne def by Collingwood
In the mix: Gawn (31 disposals), De Goey (25 disposals, 1 goal), Elliott (4 goals), Petracca (36 disposals, 1 goal), Salem (24 disposals, 1 goal), N Daicos (31 disposals)
Round 22: Melbourne def Carlton
In the mix: Melksham (4 goals), Docherty (28 disposals), Brayshaw (38 disposals), Gawn (20 disposals, 1 goal, 33 hit-outs), Oliver (29 disposals), Cripps (26 disposals)
Round 23: Brisbane def by Melbourne
In the mix: Oliver (30 disposals), Pickett (4 goals), Neale (29 disposals), Petracca (23 disposals, 2 goals), Jackson (13 disposals, 1 goal), Lever (13 disposals, 1 goal), Fritsch (4 goals)
