WILL Nathan Jones create history and become the first Melbourne player to win four in a row?
Can Bernie Vince win his second AFL club champion award? Has Tom McDonald done enough to hang on for his first best and fairest after a blistering start to the season? Does Jack Viney have enough games under his belt to join his father Todd as a winner of the ‘Bluey’ Truscott Memorial Trophy?
Or will now retired Demon Daniel Cross cap his career off on a high?
There are a host of questions surrounding this year’s Keith ‘Bluey’ Truscott Memorial Trophy and it will be fascinating to see who wins this year’s club best and fairest, which will be announced at Crown on Friday night.
This could be a very close count this year.
I think McDonald will race out of the blocks, remembering many had the key tall locked in their All-Australian side early in the season.
I reckon he’ll go very close to holding on, but Vince’s outstanding form, particularly from rounds six to 18 should be enough to put him in front and keep him there. I think he will be this year’s winner.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Jones did win his fourth in a row, but I think he’ll finish third behind Vince and McDonald.
Daniel Cross was one of Melbourne’s most consistent performers in 2015. He is not without a chance of winning it in his final AFL season.
Viney will be fascinating in this year’s count. He played outstanding football, but missed six matches with a fractured fibula.
I expect Hogan to round out the top six – after a stellar first year for a key forward.
Vince, McDonald, N.Jones, Cross, Viney and Hogan seem to be the standout top six, but what order is still up in the air.
I think the next bracket of players will be from seven to 15 – think the likes of Max Gawn, Jeff Garlett, Lynden Dunn, Jeremy Howe, Jack Watts, Colin Garland, Angus Brayshaw, Aaron vandenBerg and Dom Tyson.
Again, how they place is up for debate.
So here is my top 10 and beyond …
Matt Burgan’s 2015 Melbourne best and fairest predictions
1 – Bernie Vince
I expect Vince to jostle with key tall Tom McDonald for this year’s Keith ‘Bluey’ Truscott Memorial Trophy. Vince was outstanding in his second year for Melbourne, after a fine career with Adelaide. He played at an outstanding level for most of the season and is on target to win his second club best and fairest, after landing one with the Crows in 2009. He also won 38 disposals three times.
2 – Tom McDonald
His first eight rounds in particular were exceptional and he could have a significant lead by this stage of the season. Many football commentators had him locked in their All-Australian team by that stage. He still played some fine games in the second half of the season, but it will be his first part of the year where he will push for his first best and fairest.
3 – Nathan Jones
It’d be a phenomenal effort if Jones won his fourth consecutive best and fairest for the club, but I think he might just get pipped this year. Still, his form has been outstanding in his first year as sole captain of the club, particularly the first half of the 2015. A top three finish would be another mighty effort from the 201-game warrior, who produced another top class season.
4 – Daniel Cross
The now retired Cross finished his career last round when he chalked up his 249th AFL game. He was a highly consistent performer for the Demons this year and impressed at half-back, with his intercept marking a feature. He has six top three best and fairest finishes to his name, including the 2008 Charles Sutton Medal with the Bulldogs. It’d be a mighty effort if he landed a ‘Bluey’.
5 – Jack Viney
In the matches he played, Viney was outstanding for the Demons. But the fact that he missed six matches due to a fractured fibula could prove costly in the final result. He was also a substitute upon return. Based on the form he displayed this year, he probably would’ve pushed to win it – such was his high level of performance this year. He still could be an outside chance to go all the way.
6 – Jesse Hogan
Hogan was one of Melbourne’s great stories to emerge this year. He finished the season with 44 goals – an outstanding effort from a key forward in his debut year. Hogan, who also won the NAB AFL Rising Star earlier in the week, can’t be discounted to win the Truscott Memorial Trophy in his first year – and it’d be a mighty effort it he did.
7 – Max Gawn
A little bit like Viney, the matches Gawn played in this year were outstanding. Gawn’s effort against Geelong in round 12 was brilliant and his second half of the year was first class for a ruckman. Expect him to poll strongly, even though his first match of the season was in round 10, but once he was in the side he blossomed and should continue to in 2016 and beyond.
8 – Jeff Garlett
Garlett proved to be a fine acquisition from Carlton, booting 40 goals for the year and providing genuine spark up forward. He has now kicked 39 goals or more four times in a season. He also kicked at least one goal in every game for Melbourne this year, with his best haul being four against Geelong. He could place anywhere from six to 12 in the best and fairest count.
9 – Lynden Dunn
The first-year vice-captain backed up his career-best 2014 season with another consistent season, predominantly down back. He played every game and his level of performance was once again reliable. He finished a career-best fourth last year and could sneak into the top five, but looms as a five to 10 prospect this time around.
10 – Jeremy Howe
The high-flying utility spent time down back and up forward and once again played every match for the season. His durability has been a feature of his play and he hasn’t missed a match since the start of 2012. Another who will be interesting to see where he places in this year’s count – he could be anywhere from five to 12.
On the cusp of the top 10 …
Colin Garland (11th), Angus Brayshaw (12th), Jack Watts (13th), Aaron vandenBerg (14th) and Dom Tyson (15th)
Garland missed three games with a broken hand in the middle part of the year, which might just push him outside of the top 10, but he could finish seven to 14. Brayshaw had an outstanding first year and it wouldn’t surprise if he finished as high as top six. But he looks set to finish anywhere from six to 14. Where Watts finishes in this year’s best and fairest will be intriguing. He could place anywhere from seven to 15 and missed just two matches for the season and had a fine patch in the middle of the year. vandenBerg played some outstanding matches in his first year and was right on track to claim a top 10 finish – possibly top five – but ended up missing eight matches for the year, which will probably see him finish just inside the top 15. Injuries also hit Tyson, who finished runner-up last year, and he looks like finishing around the 12 to 15 mark.
The rest …
16 – Heritier Lumumba
17 – Jack Grimes
18 – Neville Jetta
19 – Chris Dawes
20 – Ben Newton
21 – Christian Salem
22 – Viv Michie
23 – Billy Stretch
24 – Jake Spencer
25 – Jimmy Toumpas
26 – Alex Neal-Bullen
27 – Cameron Pedersen
28 – James Harmes
29 – Matt Jones
30 – Mark Jamar
31 – Jay Kennedy-Harris
32 – Rohan Bail
33 – Dean Kent
34 – Jack Fitzpatrick
35 – Sam Frost
36 – Aidan Riley
37 – Mitch White
38 – Oscar McDonald
39 – Jordie McKenzie
Jayden Hunt, Max King, Christian Petracca, Dean Terlich and Jack Trengove did not play a match for Melbourne this year
