WHILE the Queen’s Birthday match was a disappointing result, we must look forward to what is a pivotal match against the Dockers this Sunday.
Statistically, all signs point to an incredibly tight contest. All the key indicators suggest that the teams are evenly matched, particularly in terms of scoring.
When looking at scoring from different phases of play - turnovers, kick-ins, stoppages, etc - it’s not always best to look at raw figures.
Statistically, all signs point to an incredibly tight contest. All the key indicators suggest that the teams are evenly matched, particularly in terms of scoring.
When looking at scoring from different phases of play - turnovers, kick-ins, stoppages, etc - it’s not always best to look at raw figures.
If a team plays a very stoppage-oriented style of game then they will have more opportunities to score from stoppages. Or if a team consistently restricts their opposition to low scores, they won’t have as much chance of converting from kick-ins (or even centre bounces).
So a much better way of looking at things would be conversion percentages.
If you had 20 centre bounces in a match and scored five goals from that area of the game then you’d have a 25 per cent conversion ranking (which would have you clearly on top of the competition by over 10 per cent).
The figures may seem low at times, but you have to keep in mind a couple of things. Firstly, it is difficult to score at times, and secondly the number of turnovers and stoppages in the game means there are a large number of phases of play, which qualify as an “opportunity”.
One of the most common scoring sources is from midfield turnovers.
With teams so adept at creating pressure through the middle of the ground, scoring from this area has become more important than ever.
The Demons have converted 24.8 per cent of their midfield turnovers into scores this season, ranked fifth in the competition. The Dockers are only .2 per cent behind with a 24.6 per cent success rate.
Whoever gets on top in this area will go a long way towards winning the match.
If you had 20 centre bounces in a match and scored five goals from that area of the game then you’d have a 25 per cent conversion ranking (which would have you clearly on top of the competition by over 10 per cent).
The figures may seem low at times, but you have to keep in mind a couple of things. Firstly, it is difficult to score at times, and secondly the number of turnovers and stoppages in the game means there are a large number of phases of play, which qualify as an “opportunity”.
One of the most common scoring sources is from midfield turnovers.
With teams so adept at creating pressure through the middle of the ground, scoring from this area has become more important than ever.
The Demons have converted 24.8 per cent of their midfield turnovers into scores this season, ranked fifth in the competition. The Dockers are only .2 per cent behind with a 24.6 per cent success rate.
Whoever gets on top in this area will go a long way towards winning the match.
As expected, Collingwood leads the way in this area, converting 26.8 per cent of midfield turnovers into scores.
The difference of two per cent between the Pies and Demons in this area might not seem like much, but the raw figures could show a difference of one or two vital goals per match.
From centre bounces, the Demons are narrowly ahead of the Dockers, converting 11.9 per cent of centre bounces (ranked sixth) into scores compared to the Dockers 9.7 per cent (ranked 10th).
One area where the Demons might have an edge is their rebound from defence. Once the Demons have managed to regain control in their defensive 50, they have a 13 per cent success rate at converting those into scores. In comparison, the Dockers have converted only 10.7 per cent.
But one area Melbourne needs to focus on this week is restricting Fremantle’s scoring from kick-ins. After 11 matches, the Dockers have converted 13.2 per cent of their kick-ins into scores, ranked fifth overall.
The wide open spaces of Patersons Stadium might have something to do with it, particularly when we note that the West Coast Eagles rank clearly first with a 16.5 per cent success rate (the Tigers are second with 13.5 per cent).
It will be good to tackle Fremantle at home this week, especially considering the Dockers haven’t beaten the Demons at the MCG since 2003. In fact, the teams have traded wins since the 2006 semi- final in Perth.
In terms of the key statistics, the teams are still quite evenly matched. Fremantle has averaged 50.5 inside 50s per match so far this year, ranked 10th, with the Demons just behind on 48.5.
The contested possession averages are quite close as well, with the Dockers just ahead on 144 per match compared to the Demons 139.2.
At the stoppages, both teams have had to deal with the absence of their number one ruckman for several matches this season. But the Dees have managed to maintain an upper hand in the ruck contests, with a competition-high 26.3 per cent of hitouts going to advantage.
Interestingly, since round eight when Mark Jamar was unavailable, the Demons have still managed a 25 per cent hitout to advantage ratio, ranked third in the competition during that period. In Aaron Sandilands’ absence from round 10, the Dockers have only had 15.7 per cent of hitouts reach a teammate, ranked 16th.
There is only one single clearance separating the two teams this year, with Fremantle and Melbourne ranked eighth and ninth respectively in total clearances. The stoppages will be an important factor in Sunday’s match.
Judging by the numbers we are in for a tight contest this weekend.
But with several players playing well at VFL level and a number of others on the brink of returning from injury, the Demons will have a strong side in place over the important next few weeks.
See you on Sunday.
Don’t forget to follow StatsIncredible on Twitter.
The difference of two per cent between the Pies and Demons in this area might not seem like much, but the raw figures could show a difference of one or two vital goals per match.
From centre bounces, the Demons are narrowly ahead of the Dockers, converting 11.9 per cent of centre bounces (ranked sixth) into scores compared to the Dockers 9.7 per cent (ranked 10th).
One area where the Demons might have an edge is their rebound from defence. Once the Demons have managed to regain control in their defensive 50, they have a 13 per cent success rate at converting those into scores. In comparison, the Dockers have converted only 10.7 per cent.
But one area Melbourne needs to focus on this week is restricting Fremantle’s scoring from kick-ins. After 11 matches, the Dockers have converted 13.2 per cent of their kick-ins into scores, ranked fifth overall.
The wide open spaces of Patersons Stadium might have something to do with it, particularly when we note that the West Coast Eagles rank clearly first with a 16.5 per cent success rate (the Tigers are second with 13.5 per cent).
It will be good to tackle Fremantle at home this week, especially considering the Dockers haven’t beaten the Demons at the MCG since 2003. In fact, the teams have traded wins since the 2006 semi- final in Perth.
In terms of the key statistics, the teams are still quite evenly matched. Fremantle has averaged 50.5 inside 50s per match so far this year, ranked 10th, with the Demons just behind on 48.5.
The contested possession averages are quite close as well, with the Dockers just ahead on 144 per match compared to the Demons 139.2.
At the stoppages, both teams have had to deal with the absence of their number one ruckman for several matches this season. But the Dees have managed to maintain an upper hand in the ruck contests, with a competition-high 26.3 per cent of hitouts going to advantage.
Interestingly, since round eight when Mark Jamar was unavailable, the Demons have still managed a 25 per cent hitout to advantage ratio, ranked third in the competition during that period. In Aaron Sandilands’ absence from round 10, the Dockers have only had 15.7 per cent of hitouts reach a teammate, ranked 16th.
There is only one single clearance separating the two teams this year, with Fremantle and Melbourne ranked eighth and ninth respectively in total clearances. The stoppages will be an important factor in Sunday’s match.
Judging by the numbers we are in for a tight contest this weekend.
But with several players playing well at VFL level and a number of others on the brink of returning from injury, the Demons will have a strong side in place over the important next few weeks.
See you on Sunday.
Don’t forget to follow StatsIncredible on Twitter.
