Football technology manager Pete Roberts reflects on the first round of the season and the impact of the substitute rule
WELL, well, well. A lot can happen in seven days.
The first Stats Incredible article looked at the potential impact of the new substitute rule, but no one could have predicted the chaos that ensued over the first round of football.
We had early exits (Waite and Selwood), late entries (Macaffer and Lovett-Murray) and an Melbourne star who nearly stole the show.
Ricky Petterd had arguably the greatest impact of any of the late substitutes, with six disposals, four marks, two inside 50s and a massive five scoring involvements in only a quarter of football.
In context, Jack Trengove and Ben McGlynn led their team in scoring involvements with 10 apiece - both played more than 80 per cent of the match.
The countless football shows, newspapers and online community have looked at the substitute possibly more than they should have. But where haven’t they looked?
One aspect which might have been missed among the hysteria is the way momentum can change so quickly.
If you’re unfortunate enough to be on the wrong side of a momentum swing in the final quarter then you’re in big trouble.
Granted, round one can throw up some strange results, but if we look at the time spent in the lead by all of the clubs, we will see some interesting numbers.
The Demons spent only 5:58 in front on the weekend, with the Swans enjoying more than 110 minutes in the lead.
Unfortunately, the last three minutes were deadlocked so the match ended in a draw, but credit to the Dees for clawing their way back in a frantic final term.
Three other matches were won by a team coming from well behind on the weekend.
On Friday night, Geelong spent only eight minutes in the lead against St.Kilda (compared with the Saints’ 100 minutes), leaving it until Jimmy Bartel’s freakish goal in the last quarter to gain the lead for the first time.
On Saturday night, Fremantle enjoyed a winning position for only 15 minutes in total. The Dockers had only four minutes to hang on after Michael Walters’ goal late in the last quarter, as injuries took their toll on the Lions.
And over in Adelaide, Hawthorn shot to a 30-point lead before Adelaide gradually pegged them back. The Hawks spent 76 minutes in front for the match compared to Adelaide’s 42 minutes, but the Crows were ahead when it counted.
Their biggest lead was actually their final winning margin.
Were these results an off-shoot of the new substitute rule? Or just the usual madness associated with the opening round?
Perhaps a little bit of both, especially in the case of the Lions, who ended up with four injured players by the end of the match.
In all of these matches, the eventual winner had to outscore their opponent in the final term.
With fatigue being such a big factor due to the new substitute rule (and the notion that round one is traditionally tougher on the players than any other), gaining momentum - and keeping it - in the last quarter is crucial.
On the flip side, spare a thought for Port Adelaide. They spent a grand total of one minute and 22 seconds in front against Collingwood, thanks to Jay Schulz’s first quarter goal with his only kick of the match.
But amongst all that, the Power managed to kick eight out of nine goals against the reigning premier on either side of half-time. Opposition coaches will be falling over themselves to figure out how they did it.
Statistically, the best performance by a Demon in round one would have to go to Brent Moloney - 27 disposals, seven tackles, ten clearances, 21 contested possessions (a team-high in all those categories), eight scoring involvements and a gutsy goal, which kept the Demons in the match during the tough third quarter.
And finally, how about this for an interesting stat about our upcoming opponent - Hawthorn, who had only one running bounce against the Crows, their lowest total since round 11, 2010.
During their premiership year, the Hawks had at least nine running bounces in every match they played.
Hopefully the Demons can emulate the Crows’ efforts and stop their run on the weekend.
See you all there!
WELL, well, well. A lot can happen in seven days.
The first Stats Incredible article looked at the potential impact of the new substitute rule, but no one could have predicted the chaos that ensued over the first round of football.
We had early exits (Waite and Selwood), late entries (Macaffer and Lovett-Murray) and an Melbourne star who nearly stole the show.
Ricky Petterd had arguably the greatest impact of any of the late substitutes, with six disposals, four marks, two inside 50s and a massive five scoring involvements in only a quarter of football.
In context, Jack Trengove and Ben McGlynn led their team in scoring involvements with 10 apiece - both played more than 80 per cent of the match.
The countless football shows, newspapers and online community have looked at the substitute possibly more than they should have. But where haven’t they looked?
One aspect which might have been missed among the hysteria is the way momentum can change so quickly.
If you’re unfortunate enough to be on the wrong side of a momentum swing in the final quarter then you’re in big trouble.
Granted, round one can throw up some strange results, but if we look at the time spent in the lead by all of the clubs, we will see some interesting numbers.
The Demons spent only 5:58 in front on the weekend, with the Swans enjoying more than 110 minutes in the lead.
Unfortunately, the last three minutes were deadlocked so the match ended in a draw, but credit to the Dees for clawing their way back in a frantic final term.
Three other matches were won by a team coming from well behind on the weekend.
On Friday night, Geelong spent only eight minutes in the lead against St.Kilda (compared with the Saints’ 100 minutes), leaving it until Jimmy Bartel’s freakish goal in the last quarter to gain the lead for the first time.
On Saturday night, Fremantle enjoyed a winning position for only 15 minutes in total. The Dockers had only four minutes to hang on after Michael Walters’ goal late in the last quarter, as injuries took their toll on the Lions.
And over in Adelaide, Hawthorn shot to a 30-point lead before Adelaide gradually pegged them back. The Hawks spent 76 minutes in front for the match compared to Adelaide’s 42 minutes, but the Crows were ahead when it counted.
Their biggest lead was actually their final winning margin.
Were these results an off-shoot of the new substitute rule? Or just the usual madness associated with the opening round?
Perhaps a little bit of both, especially in the case of the Lions, who ended up with four injured players by the end of the match.
In all of these matches, the eventual winner had to outscore their opponent in the final term.
With fatigue being such a big factor due to the new substitute rule (and the notion that round one is traditionally tougher on the players than any other), gaining momentum - and keeping it - in the last quarter is crucial.
On the flip side, spare a thought for Port Adelaide. They spent a grand total of one minute and 22 seconds in front against Collingwood, thanks to Jay Schulz’s first quarter goal with his only kick of the match.
But amongst all that, the Power managed to kick eight out of nine goals against the reigning premier on either side of half-time. Opposition coaches will be falling over themselves to figure out how they did it.
Statistically, the best performance by a Demon in round one would have to go to Brent Moloney - 27 disposals, seven tackles, ten clearances, 21 contested possessions (a team-high in all those categories), eight scoring involvements and a gutsy goal, which kept the Demons in the match during the tough third quarter.
And finally, how about this for an interesting stat about our upcoming opponent - Hawthorn, who had only one running bounce against the Crows, their lowest total since round 11, 2010.
During their premiership year, the Hawks had at least nine running bounces in every match they played.
Hopefully the Demons can emulate the Crows’ efforts and stop their run on the weekend.
See you all there!
