CAST your mind back to this stage last season.
The Demons had just two wins under their belt and by the end of round 21 had suffered another miserable loss – this time to Fremantle by 95 points at the MCG.
By the season’s end, Melbourne didn’t add to those two wins, resulting in one of the club’s poorest seasons on record.
In fact, only 1919 (no wins), 1906 (one win), 1951 (one win) and 1981 (one win) were worse in Melbourne’s history – since it became a foundation member of the VFL/AFL in 1897. The Demons also won two matches in 1914, but back then, it was an 18-game season, as opposed to 22 games last year.
In Paul Roos’ first season at the helm, the wins have doubled to four and the improvements have been significant – in terms of pure competitiveness and other statistical measurements.
It would be folly to suggest wins would have followed freely in 2014, given the low base Melbourne came off last season.
Still, the foundations have been laid, improvements have been made and genuine progress has been made this year.
But it really is a case of ‘Rome wasn’t built in a day’ for Melbourne and patience must still be made – even if that’s difficult to swallow in today’s world, given you can contact Barack Obama instantly via a tweet.
Sure, there is still a considerable way to go, but there is genuine light at the end of the tunnel for the Demons.
For example, it’s hard to imagine anyone predicting Melbourne’s efforts in Adelaide this year.
The Demons notched up their first win in South Australia since 2001, with a stunning three-point win over the Adelaide Crows in round seven. Melbourne then almost won its second encounter at Adelaide Oval, when it narrowly went down to Port Adelaide by three points.
Although just four wins have occurred this year, the Demons have won 28 quarters so far this season, whereas they won just 16 in 2013. They’ve also been ‘in the game’ on several occasions, when you delve deeper.
In fact, the Dees have been in front 10 times in the final quarter this year. And against the Gold Coast Suns in round five, Melbourne won three out of four quarters, before falling short by eight points.
On three occasions this season, Melbourne has lost matches by 10 points or fewer, highlighting a vast improvement on 2013, when the Dees were smashed by 60 points or more on 12 occasions.
Statistically, Melbourne’s improvement in uncontested possessions is a big indicator of improved work rate defensively this year. And speaking of defence, the Demons have improved significantly, conceding 37.4 fewer points per match this year.
Last year, Melbourne’s average losing margin was 64 points last year. In 2014, it has dropped almost half to 33 points.
Individually, Nathan Jones, Bernie Vince, James Frawley and Jeremy Howe all feature in top 10 statistical categories across the competition. Dom Tyson, in his first full AFL season, has notched up more than 450 disposals and is well on his way to 500-plus in just his third AFL season – and his first at Melbourne.
It reinforces how far the Demons have come this year, when you take a step back for a moment and realise how far behind they were.
The journey continues …
Melbourne statistical analysis: comparing 2014 (after 20 rounds) to 2013
MARGINS
Losses by 1-25 points: 2013 (3), 2014 (7)
Losses by 26-59 points: 2013 (5), 2014 (5)
Losses by 60-plus points: 2013 (12), 2014 (3)
Losses by 1-25 points
2013 (3)
Round 17: BL (19)
Round 20: GCS (13)
Round 23: WB (20)
2014 (7)
Round 1: St K (17 points)
Round 5: GCS (8)
Round 8: WB (16)
Round 11: PA (20)
Round 15 WB (6)
Round 18: PA (3)
Round 19: BL (23)
Losses by 26-59 points
2013 (5)
Round 5: BL (28 points)
Round 8: Rich (34)
Round 13: St K (35)
Round 15: SS (31)
Round 19: GWS (37)
2014 (5)
Round 3: GWS (32 points)
Round 6: SS (35)
Round 12: Coll (33)
Round 14: NM (41)
Round 20: Haw (50)
Losses by 60-plus points
2013 (12)
Round 1: PA (79 points)
Round 2: Ess (148)
Round 3: WCE (94)
Round 6: Carl (61)
Round 7: GCS: (60)
Round 9: Fre (90)
Round 10: Haw (95)
Round 11: Coll (83)
Round 16: Geel (68)
Round 18: NM (122)
Round 21: Fre (95)
Round 22: Ade (68)
2014 (3)
Round 2: WCE (93 points)
Round 16: Fre (63)
Round 17: Geel (66)
DIFFERENTIAL STATISTICS
Note: These stats are the differential between Melbourne and the opposition. For example, contested possession this year is -3.7 per game meaning on average the opposition has 3.7 more contested possessions per game than Melbourne. This is significantly better than last year where on average the opposition had 23 more contested possessions per game than Melbourne. The Demons have also broken even in the centre bounce clearances compared to last year.
Contested possessions differential
2013: -23.0/game (18th)
2014: -3.7/game (16th)
Uncontested possessions differential
2013: -53.9/game (18th)
2014: -7.8/game (11th)
Disposal differential
2013: -76.1/game (18th)
2014: -11.2/game (12th)
Centre-bounce clearance differential
2013: -4.7/game (18th)
2014: -0.2/game (11th)
OTHER KEY STATISTICS
Quarters won/lost
2013 to R20: 16 won/59 lost
2014 to date: 28 won/46 lost (1 drawn)
Points against
2013: 122.3/game (18th)
2014: 84.9/game (11th)
Points against totals
2013 to R20: 2331
2014 to date: 1614
Average losing margins
2013: 64
2014: 33
Marks
Seventh in AFL for marks
Contested marks
Fifth in AFL
Forcing opponents to kick (least handballs per game against)
First in AFL
Hit outs per game (+75 this season)
Fourth in AFL
Players used in 2014
37 players (equal 5th in AFL)
Average attendance this year
30,867 (highest since 2011)
PLAYER STATISTICS
Nathan Jones: 524 disposals (Fifth in AFL)
Dom Tyson: 451 disposals (40th in AFL)
Bernie Vince: 308 kicks (Fifth in AFL)
James Frawley: 142 marks (Third in AFL)
Jeremy Howe: 31 contested marks (Seventh in AFL)
