SUMMARY
Coming into this round Melbourne's season is alive after three consecutive victories, but it could be over if the eighth-placed North Melbourne topples the Sydney Swans at Blundstone Arena. The Kangaroos lead the ninth-placed Demons by two games and hold a narrow percentage advantage of 3.7 per cent, but Melbourne is gaining momentum and should take confidence from impressive wins against ladder leader Hawthorn and Port Adelaide on the road. Despite having an excellent record against the Demons since 2008, Carlton has struggled in the second half of this season. While kicking a winning score has been a constant problem, the Blues will take some heart from their second-half revival against the Lions last week and need a big effort on Sunday from their midfield led by Patrick Cripps.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Sunday, August 21, 1.10pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
Jesse Hogan has been battling for the past month. Picture: AFL Photos
PAST FIVE TIMES
R21, 2015, Carlton 12.6 (78) d Melbourne 7.13 (55) at the MCG
R4, 2014, Melbourne 12.9 (81) d Carlton 7.16 (58) at the MCG
R6, 2013, Carlton 18.13 (121) d Melbourne 8.12 (60) at the MCG
R9, 2012, Carlton 15.17 (107) d Melbourne 6.13 (49) at the MCG
R20, 2011, Carlton 21.8 (134) d Melbourne 7.16 (58) at the MCG
THE SIX POINTS
1. When these clubs last met Carlton set up its win in the first half, kicking 10 goals to two. Melbourne booted five goals to Carlton's two in the second half as the Blues won by 23 points. Patrick Cripps starred with 26 disposals and two goals.
2. Carlton has lost nine consecutive matches, including four by two goals or less. The Blues have struggled to score since round 14, averaging only 57 points a game.
3. Carlton has dominated Melbourne recently, winning eight of the past nine matches. Four of those victories have been by more than 50 points. Paul Roos' only win as Melbourne coach against the Blues was in round four, 2014.
4. The Blues are the worst centre clearance team this season, averaging only 10.2 a game. They are ranked ninth for hit-outs. Melbourne leads the AFL for hit-outs and sixth for centre clearances.
5. The Blues have struggled at the MCG this season, losing five of seven games. Melbourne has won seven of 11 at the venue, its best season at the MCG since 2000.
6. Dom Tyson's superb form in the past two matches has been reflected in the Schick AFL Player Ratings. The Melbourne midfielder has risen 18 spots, from 163 to 145, after collecting 30 disposals in the win against Hawthorn and 29 against Port Adelaide last Saturday night.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Jesse Hogan
The young key forward has struggled in the past month, being held goalless in his past three games and missing the win against Hawthorn two weeks ago because of a knee injury. He will be keen to get on the board early against the struggling Blues.
PREDICTION: Melbourne by 23 points
