AFTER a (not so) long summer, Stats Incredible is back for another year, ready to make sure Demon fans know more than just their Dreamteam/Supercoach scores every week.
A lot has changed since the end of 2010, none more so than the AFL-introduced rule restricting the interchange to three players plus one substitute.
As usual, a lot of hysteria has followed, even though the season hasn’t even started yet. From a stats perspective, however, it’s a good time to break out the crystal ball to see how the substitute rule will affect the numbers this year.
The most obvious impact will naturally surround interchange totals. The numbers have shown a constant trend upwards in terms of rotations, with clubs going from an average of 36 in 2005 to a massive 117 only five years later.
So what will happen in 2011 now that there are only three interchange players at any given time? The short answer is not much, with a number of teams already flagging their intentions to keep their rotations at their current levels.
What we probably won’t see is another rise in total interchanges this year, with the restrictions creating a plateau effect on the numbers.
Clubs will then have to find ways to get creative with the new rules. It’s a good problem to have for the smart coaching groups (like the Demons, obviously), who can get the jump on the opposition early on in the season before everyone else catches on.
It would be rare for one particular player to be constantly used as a substitute, so the concept of each club having some sort of “super-sub” is probably off the mark. It might also be dictated by the type of opposition you’re playing, the weather conditions or even the ground you’re playing on.
So many scenarios will change the way the coaches select the side - could it be a good chance to give youngsters a taste of senior football without having to play them for a full game? Or will clubs use the substitute to bring back an important player who can only play limited game time?
The other factor in this new rule is whether it helps a side that suffers an early injury.
Simplistically speaking it will. Instead of being down a rotation compared to your opposition, you can use the substitute to remain on even terms - at least until your opponent unleashes their fresh player on the game.
In terms of the numbers, what else will we see as a result of this significant rule change?
You will definitely find that midfielders will be among the goalkickers a whole lot more this year. It won’t be uncommon for gun onballers to be sent forward with great effect, instead of simply rotating through the bench.
Watch the likes of Chris Judd, Gary Ablett and the host of Collingwood midfielders kick multiple goals this year, perhaps even a bag of four or five every now and then.
And what type of player would you expect to fill the substitute role? The first option for clubs might be an extra midfielder who can come into the game with fresh legs, absorb a high amount of game time and hopefully have a significant impact.
If not in the starting 21, Rohan Bail’s running capacity makes him perfectly suited to this kind of role.
This will bring about the return of “normalised” statistics, where you apply a simple formula which adjusts the numbers as if every player had played 100 per cent of the game.
Only then can you really assess the impact of the substitute, particularly as the majority will only enter the field of play in the second half of the game.
If a player only played 40 per cent of the match but notched up 12 disposals, his normalised figure would rise to 30, a great contribution.
Another option for clubs might be to introduce a small forward, who is capable of pressuring the opposition at a stage in the game, where the energy levels of most of the players (including your opponents) are starting to fade.
This season the general public will be given access to some basic statistics relating to pressure, compiled by Champion Data - the first time any significant efforts have been made to measure different types of pressure. More on that in an upcoming article.
But perhaps the most attractive option for clubs in terms of the perfect substitute player is the use of their best “utility” - a player who can cover a range of areas on the ground in case of injury, and can also make a contribution in any position if they are introduced as a tactical change.
There are a number of Demons capable of slotting into this spot, and hopefully we see them all emerge this year.
Even the second ruckman/forward might fit into the potential substitute category, at the same time signalling a warning to any ruckman who can’t rest up forward and have an impact.
It will be very interesting to see how the season pans out with the substitute rule.
Hopefully the Demons only need to use it as a tactic rather than being forced due to injury - we only lost one player prior to half-time in 2010, so fingers crossed the numbers are similar this season.
Looking forward to a big year and bringing you the best numbers every week.
A lot has changed since the end of 2010, none more so than the AFL-introduced rule restricting the interchange to three players plus one substitute.
As usual, a lot of hysteria has followed, even though the season hasn’t even started yet. From a stats perspective, however, it’s a good time to break out the crystal ball to see how the substitute rule will affect the numbers this year.
The most obvious impact will naturally surround interchange totals. The numbers have shown a constant trend upwards in terms of rotations, with clubs going from an average of 36 in 2005 to a massive 117 only five years later.
So what will happen in 2011 now that there are only three interchange players at any given time? The short answer is not much, with a number of teams already flagging their intentions to keep their rotations at their current levels.
What we probably won’t see is another rise in total interchanges this year, with the restrictions creating a plateau effect on the numbers.
Clubs will then have to find ways to get creative with the new rules. It’s a good problem to have for the smart coaching groups (like the Demons, obviously), who can get the jump on the opposition early on in the season before everyone else catches on.
It would be rare for one particular player to be constantly used as a substitute, so the concept of each club having some sort of “super-sub” is probably off the mark. It might also be dictated by the type of opposition you’re playing, the weather conditions or even the ground you’re playing on.
So many scenarios will change the way the coaches select the side - could it be a good chance to give youngsters a taste of senior football without having to play them for a full game? Or will clubs use the substitute to bring back an important player who can only play limited game time?
The other factor in this new rule is whether it helps a side that suffers an early injury.
Simplistically speaking it will. Instead of being down a rotation compared to your opposition, you can use the substitute to remain on even terms - at least until your opponent unleashes their fresh player on the game.
In terms of the numbers, what else will we see as a result of this significant rule change?
You will definitely find that midfielders will be among the goalkickers a whole lot more this year. It won’t be uncommon for gun onballers to be sent forward with great effect, instead of simply rotating through the bench.
Watch the likes of Chris Judd, Gary Ablett and the host of Collingwood midfielders kick multiple goals this year, perhaps even a bag of four or five every now and then.
And what type of player would you expect to fill the substitute role? The first option for clubs might be an extra midfielder who can come into the game with fresh legs, absorb a high amount of game time and hopefully have a significant impact.
If not in the starting 21, Rohan Bail’s running capacity makes him perfectly suited to this kind of role.
This will bring about the return of “normalised” statistics, where you apply a simple formula which adjusts the numbers as if every player had played 100 per cent of the game.
Only then can you really assess the impact of the substitute, particularly as the majority will only enter the field of play in the second half of the game.
If a player only played 40 per cent of the match but notched up 12 disposals, his normalised figure would rise to 30, a great contribution.
Another option for clubs might be to introduce a small forward, who is capable of pressuring the opposition at a stage in the game, where the energy levels of most of the players (including your opponents) are starting to fade.
This season the general public will be given access to some basic statistics relating to pressure, compiled by Champion Data - the first time any significant efforts have been made to measure different types of pressure. More on that in an upcoming article.
But perhaps the most attractive option for clubs in terms of the perfect substitute player is the use of their best “utility” - a player who can cover a range of areas on the ground in case of injury, and can also make a contribution in any position if they are introduced as a tactical change.
There are a number of Demons capable of slotting into this spot, and hopefully we see them all emerge this year.
Even the second ruckman/forward might fit into the potential substitute category, at the same time signalling a warning to any ruckman who can’t rest up forward and have an impact.
It will be very interesting to see how the season pans out with the substitute rule.
Hopefully the Demons only need to use it as a tactic rather than being forced due to injury - we only lost one player prior to half-time in 2010, so fingers crossed the numbers are similar this season.
Looking forward to a big year and bringing you the best numbers every week.
